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When Will the Earths Contry All Touch Again

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Long-term extrapolated geological and biological changes of Planet Earth

A dark gray and red sphere representing the Earth lies against a black background to the right of an orange circular object representing the Sun

Conjectured analogy of the scorched Earth afterward the Sun has entered the cherry giant stage, about five billion years from now[1]

The biological and geological hereafter of Earth can be extrapolated based on the estimated effects of several long-term influences. These include the chemistry at Globe's surface, the cooling rate of the planet'southward interior, the gravitational interactions with other objects in the Solar System, and a steady increment in the Lord's day's luminosity. Even so, an uncertain factor is the continuous influence of technology introduced by humans, such as climate engineering,[2] which could crusade significant changes to the planet.[3] [4] For example, the current Holocene extinction[v] is existence caused by technology.[6] The effects may final for up to 5 meg years.[7] In turn, technology may result in the extinction of humanity, leaving the planet to gradually return to a slower evolutionary step resulting solely from long-term natural processes.[viii] [ix]

Over time intervals of hundreds of millions of years, random celestial events pose a global risk to the biosphere, which can event in mass extinctions. These include impacts past comets or asteroids and the possibility of a massive stellar explosion, called a supernova, inside a 100-calorie-free-year (31-parsec) radius of the Sun. Other large-scale geological events are more anticipated. Milankovitch's theory predicts that the planet will go on to undergo glacial periods at to the lowest degree until the Fourth glaciation comes to an end. These periods are caused by the variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of Earth's orbit.[10] Equally role of the ongoing supercontinent cycle, plate tectonics volition probably result in a supercontinent in 250–350 million years. Sometime in the adjacent 1.v–4.5 billion years, Earth'south centric tilt may begin to undergo chaotic variations, with changes in the axial tilt of up to 90°.[11]

The luminosity of the Lord's day will steadily increment, resulting in a rise in the solar radiation reaching Earth, resulting in a higher rate of weathering of silicate minerals, affecting the carbonate–silicate cycle, which will crusade a subtract in the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In about 600 million years from now, the level of carbon dioxide will fall below the level needed to sustain C3 carbon fixation photosynthesis used past trees. Some plants apply the C4 carbon fixation method to persist at carbon dioxide concentrations every bit low as ten parts per 1000000. Withal, the long-term tendency is for plant life to die off birthday. The extinction of plants will exist the demise of almost all fauna life since plants are the base of the food concatenation on Earth.[12]

In virtually one billion years, the solar luminosity will exist 10% higher, causing the atmosphere to get a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans. Equally a likely upshot, plate tectonics and the entire carbon bike will end.[thirteen] Following this event, in about 2–3 billion years, the planet'southward magnetic dynamo may cease, causing the magnetosphere to decay and leading to an accelerated loss of volatiles from the outer atmosphere. Four billion years from now, the increase in Earth's surface temperature will cause a delinquent greenhouse effect, creating weather condition more extreme than present-twenty-four hours Venus and heating Earth's surface enough to melt it. By that point, all life on Globe volition exist extinct.[14] [xv] Finally, the most probable fate of the planet is assimilation past the Sunday in about vii.v billion years, after the star has entered the red giant phase and expanded across the planet'southward current orbit.[16]

Human being influence [edit]

Humans play a central office in the biosphere, with the large human population dominating many of Globe's ecosystems.[iii] This has resulted in a widespread, ongoing mass extinction of other species during the present geological epoch, at present known equally the Holocene extinction. The large-scale loss of species caused by human influence since the 1950s has been called a biotic crisis, with an estimated ten% of the full species lost as of 2007.[half-dozen] At current rates, about 30% of species are at risk of extinction in the next hundred years.[17] The Holocene extinction outcome is the event of habitat destruction, the widespread distribution of invasive species, poaching, and climate change.[18] [xix] [20] In the present mean solar day, man action has had a meaning touch on the surface of the planet. More than a 3rd of the land surface has been modified by human actions, and humans use about 20% of global primary production.[iv] The concentration of carbon dioxide in the temper has increased by shut to l% since the start of the Industrial Revolution.[three] [21]

The consequences of a persistent biotic crisis have been predicted to last for at least five million years.[vii] It could result in a turn down in biodiversity and homogenization of biotas, accompanied by a proliferation of species that are opportunistic, such every bit pests and weeds. Novel species may emerge; in particular taxa that prosper in human-dominated ecosystems may rapidly diversify into many new species. Microbes are likely to benefit from the increase in food-enriched environmental niches. No new species of existing big vertebrates are likely to arise and nutrient chains will probably be shortened.[v] [22]

There are multiple scenarios for known risks that can have a global impact on the planet. From the perspective of humanity, these can be subdivided into survivable risks and last risks. Risks that humans pose to themselves include climate change, the misuse of nanotechnology, a nuclear holocaust, warfare with a programmed superintelligence, a genetically engineered disease, or a disaster caused by a physics experiment. Similarly, several natural events may pose a doomsday threat, including a highly virulent illness, the affect of an asteroid or comet, delinquent greenhouse event, and resource depletion. At that place may be the possibility of an infestation by an extraterrestrial lifeform.[23] The actual odds of these scenarios occurring are difficult if not incommunicable to deduce.[eight] [ix]

Should the man species get extinct, and so the diverse features assembled by humanity volition begin to disuse. The largest structures have an estimated decay half-life of most 1,000 years. The last surviving structures would most likely be open-pit mines, large landfills, major highways, wide canal cuts, and globe-fill flank dams. A few massive stone monuments like the pyramids at the Giza Necropolis or the sculptures at Mount Rushmore may still survive in some class after a million years.[ix] [a]

Potential events [edit]

Every bit the Sun orbits the Milky way, wandering stars may approach shut plenty to have a confusing influence on the Solar Arrangement.[24] A close stellar encounter may crusade a significant reduction in the perihelion distances of comets in the Oort deject—a spherical region of icy bodies orbiting within one-half a light-twelvemonth of the Lord's day.[25] Such an run across can trigger a 40-fold increase in the number of comets reaching the inner Solar Organization. Impacts from these comets can trigger a mass extinction of life on Earth. These disruptive encounters occur an average of once every 45 million years.[26] The mean time for the Sun to collide with another star in the solar neighborhood is approximately 30 trillion ( 3×1013 ) years, which is much longer than the estimated historic period of the Universe, at approximately 13.8 billion years. This can exist taken equally an indication of the low likelihood of such an event occurring during the lifetime of the Earth.[27]

The energy released from the impact of an asteroid or comet with a diameter of 5–10 km (3–six mi) or larger is sufficient to create a global ecology disaster and crusade a statistically significant increase in the number of species extinctions. Amid the deleterious effects resulting from a major affect event is a cloud of fine dust ejecta blanketing the planet, blocking some direct sunlight from reaching the Globe's surface thus lowering land temperatures by nigh fifteen °C (27 °F) within a week and halting photosynthesis for several months (similar to a nuclear winter). The hateful time between major impacts is estimated to be at least 100 million years. During the final 540 million years, simulations demonstrated that such an impact rate is sufficient to crusade 5 or six mass extinctions and 20 to 30 lower severity events. This matches the geologic tape of pregnant extinctions during the Phanerozoic Eon. Such events can exist expected to continue.[28]

A supernova is a cataclysmic explosion of a star. Within the Milky Style galaxy, supernova explosions occur on boilerplate in one case every 40 years.[29] During the history of World, multiple such events have probable occurred within a distance of 100 light-years; known as a near-Globe supernova. Explosions inside this altitude can contaminate the planet with radioisotopes and maybe impact the biosphere.[xxx] Gamma rays emitted past a supernova react with nitrogen in the temper, producing nitrous oxides. These molecules cause a depletion of the ozone layer that protects the surface from ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the Sunday. An increase in UV-B radiation of only 10–30% is sufficient to cause a significant impact on life; particularly to the phytoplankton that form the base of the oceanic food chain. A supernova explosion at a distance of 26 lite-years volition reduce the ozone cavalcade density by half. On boilerplate, a supernova explosion occurs within 32 light-years once every few hundred million years, resulting in a depletion of the ozone layer lasting several centuries.[31] Over the next two billion years, there will be about 20 supernova explosions and 1 gamma ray burst that will have a significant impact on the planet's biosphere.[32]

The incremental effect of gravitational perturbations between the planets causes the inner Solar System every bit a whole to behave chaotically over long fourth dimension periods. This does non significantly touch the stability of the Solar System over intervals of a few meg years or less, merely over billions of years, the orbits of the planets become unpredictable. Computer simulations of the Solar System'south evolution over the side by side v billion years suggest that there is a small (less than 1%) chance that a standoff could occur between Earth and either Mercury, Venus, or Mars.[33] [34] During the same interval, the odds that Earth will be scattered out of the Solar System by a passing star are on the lodge of 1 in 100,000 (0.001%). In such a scenario, the oceans would freeze solid within several million years, leaving only a few pockets of liquid h2o about xiv km (ix mi) hugger-mugger. There is a remote gamble that Earth will instead be captured by a passing binary star arrangement, allowing the planet's biosphere to remain intact. The odds of this happening are about i in iii million.[35]

Orbit and rotation [edit]

The gravitational perturbations of the other planets in the Solar Organization combine to modify the orbit of Earth and the orientation of its rotation axis. These changes can influence the planetary climate.[10] [36] [37] [38] Despite such interactions, highly authentic simulations show that overall, World's orbit is likely to remain dynamically stable for billions of years into the time to come. In all i,600 simulations, the planet's semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination remained nearly constant.[39]

Glaciation [edit]

Historically, in that location have been cyclical ice ages in which glacial sheets periodically covered the higher latitudes of the continents. Water ice ages may occur because of changes in ocean apportionment and continentality induced past plate tectonics.[40] The Milankovitch theory predicts that glacial periods occur during water ice ages because of astronomical factors in combination with climate feedback mechanisms. The chief astronomical drivers are a higher than normal orbital eccentricity, a depression centric tilt (or obliquity), and the alignment of the northern hemisphere'due south summer solstice with the aphelion. Each of these effects occur cyclically. For example, the eccentricity changes over fourth dimension cycles of well-nigh 100,000 and 400,000 years, with the value ranging from less than 0.01 up to 0.05.[41] [42] This is equivalent to a alter of the semiminor centrality of the planet's orbit from 99.95% of the semimajor centrality to 99.88%, respectively.[43]

World is passing through an water ice age known equally the quaternary glaciation, and is presently in the Holocene interglacial menstruation. This period would commonly be expected to end in about 25,000 years.[38] Nevertheless, the increased rate of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by humans may delay the onset of the next glacial period until at to the lowest degree fifty,000–130,000 years from now. On the other hand, a global warming menses of finite duration (based on the supposition that fossil fuel use will finish by the twelvemonth 2200) will probably only touch on the glacial menstruation for nearly 5,000 years. Thus, a brief menstruation of global warming-induced through a few centuries' worth of greenhouse gas emission would only accept a limited impact in the long term.[ten]

Obliquity [edit]

A small gray circle at the top represents the Moon. A green circle centered in a blue ellipse represents the Earth and its oceans. A curved arrow shows the counterclockwise direction of the Earth's rotation, resulting in the long axis of the ellipse being slightly out of alignment with the Moon.

The tidal dispatch of the Moon slows the rotation rate of the Globe and increases the World-Moon altitude. Friction effects—between the cadre and mantle and between the temper and surface—can dissipate the Earth's rotational energy. These combined effects are expected to increase the length of the day by more than than 1.5 hours over the side by side 250 one thousand thousand years, and to increase the obliquity past about a half degree. The distance to the Moon volition increase by nigh 1.five Globe radii during the same menses.[44]

Based on reckoner models, the presence of the Moon appears to stabilize the obliquity of the World, which may help the planet to avoid dramatic climate changes.[45] This stability is achieved because the Moon increases the precession rate of the Globe'due south rotation centrality, thereby avoiding resonances between the precession of the rotation and precession of the planet's orbital plane (that is, the precession motion of the ecliptic).[46] All the same, as the semimajor axis of the Moon's orbit continues to increment, this stabilizing result will diminish. At some bespeak, perturbation effects will probably cause chaotic variations in the obliquity of the Globe, and the axial tilt may modify past angles as high as ninety° from the plane of the orbit. This is expected to occur between 1.5 and 4.v billion years from now.[eleven]

A loftier obliquity would probably issue in dramatic changes in the climate and may destroy the planet's habitability.[37] When the axial tilt of the Earth exceeds 54°, the yearly insolation at the equator is less than that at the poles. The planet could remain at an obliquity of 60° to 90° for periods as long as 10 million years.[47]

Geodynamics [edit]

An irregular green shape against a blue background represents Pangaea.

Tectonics-based events volition keep to occur well into the future and the surface will be steadily reshaped past tectonic uplift, extrusions, and erosion. Mount Vesuvius can be expected to erupt about twoscore times over the next i,000 years. During the same period, about five to vii earthquakes of magnitude 8 or greater should occur forth the San Andreas Fault, while about l magnitudes of 9 events may be expected worldwide. Mauna Loa should experience most 200 eruptions over the adjacent 1,000 years, and the Old Faithful Geyser will probable finish to operate. The Niagara Falls will continue to retreat upstream, reaching Buffalo in about 30,000–50,000 years.[ix]

In 10,000 years, the post-glacial rebound of the Baltic Sea volition take reduced the depth by about 90 m (300 ft). The Hudson Bay will subtract in depth by 100 one thousand over the same flow.[34] After 100,000 years, the isle of Hawaii will have shifted about 9 km (five.6 mi) to the northwest. The planet may be inbound some other glacial period by this fourth dimension.[9]

Continental migrate [edit]

The theory of plate tectonics demonstrates that the continents of the Earth are moving across the surface at the charge per unit of a few centimeters per year. This is expected to continue, causing the plates to relocate and collide. Continental drift is facilitated by ii factors: the energy generated within the planet and the presence of a hydrosphere. With the loss of either of these, continental migrate will come up to a halt.[48] The production of heat through radiogenic processes is sufficient to maintain drapery convection and plate subduction for at least the adjacent 1.one billion years.[49]

At nowadays, the continents of North and S America are moving west from Africa and Europe. Researchers have produced several scenarios nigh how this will continue in the future.[50] These geodynamic models can be distinguished by the subduction flux, whereby the oceanic crust moves under a continent. In the introversion model, the younger, interior, Atlantic Ocean becomes preferentially subducted and the current migration of North and Due south America is reversed. In the extroversion model, the older, exterior, Pacific Ocean remains preferentially subducted and North and Due south America migrate toward east asia.[51] [52]

Equally the understanding of geodynamics improves, these models will exist subject field to revision. In 2008, for case, a computer simulation was used to predict that a reorganization of the curtain convection will occur over the next 100 meg years, creating a new supercontinent composed of Africa, Eurasia, Commonwealth of australia, Antarctica and S America to class around Antarctica.[53]

Regardless of the outcome of the continental migration, the continued subduction process causes water to be transported to the mantle. After a billion years from the present, a geophysical model gives an estimate that 27% of the current body of water mass will take been subducted. If this procedure were to continue unmodified into the future, the subduction and release would reach an equilibrium later on 65% of the current ocean mass has been subducted.[54]

Introversion [edit]

A rough approximation of Pangaea Ultima, one of the iv models for a futurity supercontinent

Christopher Scotese and his colleagues have mapped out the predicted motions several hundred meg years into the futurity as function of the Paleomap Project.[50] In their scenario, 50 one thousand thousand years from at present the Mediterranean Sea may vanish, and the collision betwixt Europe and Africa volition create a long mount range extending to the electric current location of the Persian Gulf. Australia will merge with Indonesia, and Baja California volition slide northward along the declension. New subduction zones may announced off the eastern coast of N and S America, and mountain chains volition form along those coastlines. The migration of Antarctica to the due north will cause all of its ice sheets to cook. This, forth with the melting of the Greenland ice sheets, will raise the average sea level by 90 yard (300 ft). The inland flooding of the continents will result in climate changes.[50]

Every bit this scenario continues, by 100 one thousand thousand years from the present, the continental spreading will have reached its maximum extent and the continents will then begin to coalesce. In 250 million years, North America will collide with Africa. South America volition wrap around the southern tip of Africa. The result volition be the formation of a new supercontinent (sometimes called Pangaea Ultima), with the Pacific Ocean stretching across half the planet. Antarctica will reverse direction and return to the South Pole, building up a new ice cap.[55]

Extroversion [edit]

The offset scientist to extrapolate the current motions of the continents was Canadian geologist Paul F. Hoffman of Harvard University. In 1992, Hoffman predicted that the continents of North and South America would keep to advance beyond the Pacific Ocean, pivoting about Siberia until they brainstorm to merge with Asia. He dubbed the resulting supercontinent, Amasia.[56] [57] Later, in the 1990s, Roy Livermore calculated a similar scenario. He predicted that Antarctica would outset to migrate north, and East Africa and Madagascar would move across the Indian Bounding main to collide with Asia.[58]

In an extroversion model, the closure of the Pacific Bounding main would be complete in most 350 1000000 years.[59] This marks the completion of the current supercontinent cycle, wherein the continents split apart and and so rejoin each other about every 400–500 million years.[60] Once the supercontinent is congenital, plate tectonics may enter a period of inactivity as the charge per unit of subduction drops past an order of magnitude. This period of stability could cause an increase in the pall temperature at the rate of thirty–100 °C (54–180 °F) every 100 meg years, which is the minimum lifetime of past supercontinents. Every bit a event, volcanic activity may increment.[52] [59]

Supercontinent [edit]

The formation of a supercontinent can dramatically touch the environment. The standoff of plates will result in mountain building, thereby shifting atmospheric condition patterns. Sea levels may autumn considering of increased glaciation.[61] The rate of the surface weathering tin can rise, increasing the rate that organic material is cached. Supercontinents tin can cause a drop in global temperatures and an increase in atmospheric oxygen. This, in plough, tin bear upon the climate, farther lowering temperatures. All of these changes can result in more rapid biological evolution every bit new niches emerge.[62]

The germination of a supercontinent insulates the drapery. The flow of heat will be concentrated, resulting in volcanism and the flooding of large areas with basalt. Rifts will form and the supercontinent will dissever upward once again.[63] The planet may and so experience a warming period every bit occurred during the Cretaceous menstruation,[62] which marked the separate-upwardly of the previous Pangaea supercontinent.

Solidification of the outer cadre [edit]

The iron-rich cadre region of the Globe is divided into a 2,440 km (1,520 mi) bore solid inner cadre and a 6,960 km (four,320 mi) diameter liquid outer core.[64] The rotation of the Earth creates convective eddies in the outer core region that crusade it to function as a dynamo.[65] This generates a magnetosphere most the Earth that deflects particles from the solar air current, which prevents significant erosion of the atmosphere from sputtering. As heat from the core is transferred outward toward the mantle, the internet trend is for the inner purlieus of the liquid outer core region to freeze, thereby releasing thermal energy and causing the solid inner core to grow.[66] This iron crystallization process has been ongoing for about a billion years. In the modern era, the radius of the inner core is expanding at an average rate of roughly 0.v mm (0.02 in) per twelvemonth, at the expense of the outer core.[67] Nearly all of the energy needed to power the dynamo is existence supplied by this procedure of inner cadre formation.[68]

The inner core is expected to consume most or all of the outer cadre 3–4 billion years from now, resulting in an almost completely solidified core composed of iron and other heavy elements. The surviving liquid envelope will mainly consist of lighter elements that will undergo less mixing.[69] Alternatively, if at some bespeak plate tectonics terminate, the interior will cool less efficiently, which would slow down or even terminate the inner core's growth. In either instance, this tin result in the loss of the magnetic dynamo. Without a performance dynamo, the magnetic field of the Earth will decay in a geologically short time period of roughly ten,000 years.[lxx] The loss of the magnetosphere will cause an increase in erosion of calorie-free elements, particularly hydrogen, from the World'southward outer atmosphere into space, resulting in less favorable weather for life.[71]

Solar evolution [edit]

The energy generation of the Sunday is based upon thermonuclear fusion of hydrogen into helium. This occurs in the core region of the star using the proton–proton chain reaction process. Because in that location is no convection in the solar core, the helium concentration builds up in that region without beingness distributed throughout the star. The temperature at the core of the Dominicus is as well low for nuclear fusion of helium atoms through the triple-blastoff process, so these atoms do not contribute to the net energy generation that is needed to maintain hydrostatic equilibrium of the Sun.[72]

At nowadays, nearly half the hydrogen at the cadre has been consumed, with the remainder of the atoms consisting primarily of helium. As the number of hydrogen atoms per unit of measurement mass decreases, so too does their free energy output provided through nuclear fusion. This results in a subtract in pressure support, which causes the core to contract until the increased density and temperature bring the cadre pressure level into equilibrium with the layers higher up. The higher temperature causes the remaining hydrogen to undergo fusion at a more than rapid rate, thereby generating the energy needed to maintain the equilibrium.[72]

The consequence of this process has been a steady increase in the energy output of the Sunday. When the Sun commencement became a primary sequence star, it radiated only seventy% of the current luminosity. The luminosity has increased in a nearly linear mode to the present, rising by i% every 110 1000000 years.[16] Too, in three billion years the Sun is expected to be 33% more luminous. The hydrogen fuel at the cadre volition finally be exhausted in five billion years when the Sun will be 67% more luminous than at nowadays. Thereafter the Sunday volition continue to burn hydrogen in a shell surrounding its core until the luminosity reaches 121% higher up the present value. This marks the end of the Sun'south primary-sequence lifetime, and thereafter information technology volition pass through the subgiant phase and evolve into a red giant.[one]

By this time, the collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies should be underway. Although this could result in the Solar System being ejected from the newly combined galaxy, it is considered unlikely to accept any adverse issue on the Sun or its planets.[74] [75]

Climate touch on [edit]

The rate of weathering of silicate minerals will increase as rising temperatures speed upward chemical processes. This in turn will subtract the level of carbon dioxide in the temper, as reactions with silicate minerals convert carbon dioxide gas into solid carbonates. Inside the next 600 million years from the nowadays, the concentration of carbon dioxide will autumn below the critical threshold needed to sustain C3 photosynthesis: about 50 parts per million. At this point, trees and forests in their current forms will no longer be able to survive.[76] This pass up in constitute life is likely to be a long-term decline rather than a sharp drop. The Ciii establish group will likely dice ane by one well before the 50 parts per million level are reached. The showtime plants to disappear volition exist C3 herbaceous plants, followed by deciduous forests, evergreen wide-leafage forests and finally evergreen conifers.[77] Nevertheless, Civ carbon fixation can continue at much lower concentrations, down to above 10 parts per million. Thus plants using C4 photosynthesis may be able to survive for at to the lowest degree 0.8 billion years and maybe as long every bit 1.2 billion years from now, later which rising temperatures volition make the biosphere unsustainable.[78] [79] [80] Currently, C4 plants represent about 5% of World's constitute biomass and 1% of its known plant species.[81] For example, about 50% of all grass species (Poaceae) use the C4 photosynthetic pathway,[82] as do many species in the herbaceous family Amaranthaceae.[83]

When the levels of carbon dioxide fall to the limit where photosynthesis is barely sustainable, the proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is expected to oscillate upward and down. This will permit land vegetation to flourish each fourth dimension the level of carbon dioxide rises due to tectonic activity and respiration from animal life. However, the long-term trend is for the plant life on state to dice off altogether equally most of the remaining carbon in the atmosphere becomes sequestered in the Earth.[84] Some microbes are capable of photosynthesis at concentrations of carbon dioxide as low as one function per one thousand thousand, so these life forms would probably disappear only considering of rising temperatures and the loss of the biosphere.[78]

Plants—and, past extension, animals—could survive longer by evolving other strategies such as requiring less carbon dioxide for photosynthetic processes, becoming carnivorous, adapting to desiccation, or associating with fungi. These adaptations are likely to appear near the beginning of the moist greenhouse (see farther).[77]

The loss of higher plant life volition result in the eventual loss of oxygen also as ozone due to the respiration of animals, chemical reactions in the temper, volcanic eruptions, and people. This will result in less attenuation of DNA-damaging UV,[77] too as the death of animals; the first animals to disappear would be large mammals, followed past small mammals, birds, amphibians and large fish, reptiles and minor fish, and finally invertebrates. Before this happens, it's expected that life would concentrate at refugia of lower temperature such as high elevations where less state surface expanse is available, thus restricting population sizes. Smaller animals would survive better than larger ones because of lesser oxygen requirements, while birds would fare better than mammals cheers to their ability to travel large distances looking for cooler temperatures. Based on oxygen one-half-life in the atmosphere, animal life would last at most 100 meg years after the loss of higher plants.[12] Still, animal life may last much longer since more l% of oxygen is currently produced by phytoplankton.

In their work The Life and Death of Planet Earth, authors Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee have argued that some form of animal life may go along even after most of the Earth's constitute life has disappeared. Ward and Brownlee use fossil show from the Burgess Shale in British Columbia, Canada, to decide the climate of the Cambrian Explosion, and use it to predict the climate of the future when rising global temperatures acquired past a warming Lord's day and failing oxygen levels result in the final extinction of brute life. Initially, they expect that some insects, lizards, birds, and small mammals may persist, along with sea life. However, without oxygen replenishment by plant life, they believe that animals would probably die off from asphyxiation within a few million years. Even if sufficient oxygen were to remain in the atmosphere through the persistence of some course of photosynthesis, the steady rise in global temperature would effect in a gradual loss of biodiversity. [84]

As temperatures continue to rise, the last of animal life will be driven toward the poles, and maybe underground. They would become primarily agile during the polar night, aestivating during the polar day due to the intense heat. Much of the surface would become a arid desert and life would primarily be plant in the oceans.[84] However, due to a subtract in the amount of organic matter entering the oceans from land also as a decrease in dissolved oxygen,[77] sea life would disappear as well following a similar path to that on Globe'south surface. This process would get-go with the loss of freshwater species and conclude with invertebrates,[12] particularly those that practice not depend on living plants such as termites or those near hydrothermal vents such every bit worms of the genus Riftia.[77] As a result of these processes, multicellular life forms may exist extinct in about 800 1000000 years, and eukaryotes in 1.three billion years, leaving only the prokaryotes.[85]

Loss of oceans [edit]

Light brown clouds wrap around a planet, as seen from space.

The atmosphere of Venus is in a "super-greenhouse" state. Globe in a few billion years could probable resemble present Venus.

One billion years from at present, well-nigh 27% of the modern bounding main will have been subducted into the mantle. If this process were immune to continue uninterrupted, information technology would reach an equilibrium state where 65% of the electric current surface reservoir would remain at the surface.[54] In one case the solar luminosity is 10% college than its current value, the average global surface temperature volition ascension to 320 K (47 °C; 116 °F). The atmosphere volition become a "moist greenhouse" leading to a delinquent evaporation of the oceans.[86] [87] At this point, models of the World's future environment demonstrate that the stratosphere would contain increasing levels of h2o. These water molecules will be broken downwards through photodissociation past solar UV, allowing hydrogen to escape the atmosphere. The cyberspace event would be a loss of the earth's seawater past about one.one billion years from the present.[88] [89]

In that location will be two variations of this future warming feedback: the "moist greenhouse" where water vapor dominates the troposphere while water vapor starts to accrue in the stratosphere (if the oceans evaporate very quickly), and the "runaway greenhouse" where water vapor becomes a dominant component of the atmosphere (if the oceans evaporate too slowly). In this bounding main-gratuitous era, at that place will proceed to be surface reservoirs equally water is steadily released from the deep crust and mantle,[54] where it is estimated that there is an amount of water equivalent to several times that currently present in the Earth's oceans.[90] Some water may exist retained at the poles and there may be occasional rainstorms, but for the about part, the planet would exist a desert with large dunefields covering its equator, and a few salt flats on what was once the ocean flooring, like to the ones in the Atacama Desert in Chile.[13]

With no water to serve as a lubricant, plate tectonics would very likely finish and the most visible signs of geological activity would be shield volcanoes located higher up mantle hotspots.[87] [77] In these arid conditions the planet may retain some microbial and possibly fifty-fifty multicellular life.[87] Most of these microbes will be halophiles and life could find refuge in the temper as has been proposed to have happened on Venus.[77] Nonetheless, the increasingly extreme weather will likely pb to the extinction of the prokaryotes between 1.6 billion years[85] and 2.8 billion years from at present, with the last of them living in residual ponds of h2o at high latitudes and heights or in caverns with trapped ice. Even so, hush-hush life could last longer.[12] What proceeds later on this depends on the level of tectonic activity. A steady release of carbon dioxide by volcanic eruption could cause the atmosphere to enter a "super-greenhouse" state like that of the planet Venus. But, as stated higher up, without surface h2o, plate tectonics would probably come to a halt and most of the carbonates would remain securely buried[13] until the Sun becomes a ruby giant and its increased luminosity heats the stone to the point of releasing the carbon dioxide.[90] Yet, as pointed out by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in their book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, according to NASA Ames scientist Kevin Zahnle, it is highly possible that plate tectonics may stop long before the loss of the oceans, due to the gradual cooling of the Earth's cadre, which could happen in but 500 1000000 years. This could potentially plough the Earth back into a waterworld, and even perhaps drowning all remaining land life.[91]

The loss of the oceans could be delayed until 2 billion years in the future if the atmospheric pressure level were to decline. Lower atmospheric force per unit area would reduce the greenhouse issue, thereby lowering the surface temperature. This could occur if natural processes were to remove the nitrogen from the atmosphere. Studies of organic sediments have shown that at to the lowest degree 100 kilopascals (0.99 atm) of nitrogen has been removed from the temper over the past iv billion years; enough to effectively double the electric current atmospheric pressure if it were to be released. This rate of removal would be sufficient to counter the effects of increasing solar luminosity for the side by side 2 billion years.[92]

By 2.viii billion years from now, the surface temperature of the Earth will take reached 422 K (149 °C; 300 °F), even at the poles. At this point, whatsoever remaining life will be extinguished due to extreme conditions. What happens beyond this depends on how much h2o is left on the surface. If all of the water on Earth has evaporated past this signal already (via the "moist greenhouse" at ~1 Gyr from now), the planet volition stay in the aforementioned conditions with a steady increase in the surface temperature until the Lord's day becomes a red giant.[87] If non and there are still pockets of water left, and evaporates likewise slowly, then in virtually 3–iv billion years, once the amount of water vapor in the lower atmosphere rises to 40%, and the luminosity from the Sun reaches 35–forty% more than its present-solar day value,[88] a "runaway greenhouse" consequence volition ensue, causing the atmosphere to heat upwards and raising the surface temperature to effectually 1,600 Thousand (1,330 °C; 2,420 °F). This is sufficient to melt the surface of the planet.[89] [87] Still, about of the atmosphere will be retained until the Sun has entered the cerise behemothic stage.[93]

With the extinction of life, ii.8 billion years from now information technology is expected that Globe's biosignatures will disappear, to be replaced by signatures caused past non-biological processes.[77]

Carmine giant stage [edit]

A large red disk represents the Sun as a red giant. An inset box shows the current Sun as a yellow dot.

The size of the current Sun (now in the main sequence) compared to its estimated size during its red giant stage

Once the Lord's day changes from burning hydrogen inside its core to burning hydrogen in a shell around its core, the core will outset to contract, and the outer envelope will expand. The total luminosity will steadily increase over the following billion years until information technology reaches 2,730 times its current luminosity at the age of 12.167 billion years. Well-nigh of Earth's atmosphere will be lost to space. Its surface volition consist of a lava ocean with floating continents of metals and metal oxides and icebergs of refractory materials, with its surface temperature reaching more ii,400 K (2,130 °C; 3,860 °F).[94] The Sun volition feel more than rapid mass loss, with near 33% of its total mass shed with the solar air current. The loss of mass will mean that the orbits of the planets will aggrandize. The orbital distance of Earth volition increment to at virtually 150% of its current value (that is, one.five AU (220 meg km; 140 million mi)).[16]

The near rapid role of the Sunday's expansion into a cherry giant volition occur during the final stages, when the Sun will be about 12 billion years erstwhile. It is likely to aggrandize to swallow both Mercury and Venus, reaching a maximum radius of 1.ii AU (180 million km; 110 one thousand thousand mi). Earth volition interact tidally with the Sun's outer temper, which would decrease Earth's orbital radius. Elevate from the chromosphere of the Sunday would reduce Globe's orbit. These effects volition counterbalance the touch of mass loss by the Sun, and the Sun will likely engulf Earth in about 7.59 billion years.[16]

The drag from the solar temper may cause the orbit of the Moon to decay. Once the orbit of the Moon closes to a distance of 18,470 km (eleven,480 mi), it will cross Earth'southward Roche limit, pregnant that tidal interaction with Earth would break autonomously the Moon, turning it into a ring organisation. Most of the orbiting rings will brainstorm to disuse, and the droppings will impact Earth. Hence, even if the Sun does not consume up Earth, the planet may be left moonless.[95] Furthermore, the ablation and vaporization caused by its fall on a decaying trajectory towards the Sunday may remove World's mantle, leaving only its core, which will finally be destroyed later at most 200 years.[96] [97] Globe's sole legacy will be a very slight increase (0.01%) of the solar metallicity following this event.[98] : IIC

Across and ultimate fate [edit]

The Helix nebula, a planetary nebula similar to what the Sun will produce in 8 billion years

Afterward fusing helium in its core to carbon, the Sunday will brainstorm to plummet once more, evolving into a meaty white dwarf star subsequently ejecting its outer atmosphere as a planetary nebula. The predicted final mass is 54.ane% of the nowadays value, virtually likely consisting primarily of carbon and oxygen.[1]

Currently, the Moon is moving away from Earth at a rate of 4 cm (1.6 inches) per year. In 50 billion years, if the Earth and Moon are non engulfed by the Sunday, they will go tidelocked into a larger, stable orbit, with each showing merely one face to the other.[99] [100] [101] Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract angular momentum from the organization, causing the orbit of the Moon to decay and the World's rotation to accelerate.[102] In about 65 billion years, information technology is estimated that the Moon may end up colliding with the World, due to the remaining energy of the Earth–Moon system existence sapped by the remnant Sun, causing the Moon to slowly move inwards toward the Earth.[103]

On a time calibration of 1019 (x quintillion) years the remaining planets in the Solar Arrangement will be ejected from the system by violent relaxation. If Globe is non destroyed by the expanding red giant Lord's day and the Earth is not ejected from the Solar System by violent relaxation, the ultimate fate of the planet volition be that it collides with the blackness dwarf Sun due to the decay of its orbit via gravitational radiation, in xtwenty (Short Scale: 100 quintillion, Long Scale: 100 trillion) years.[104]

Run into also [edit]

  • Eschatology – Part of theology concerned with the final events of history, or the ultimate destiny of humanity
  • Circumstellar habitable zone – Orbits where planets may have liquid water
  • Fermi paradox – Contradiction between lack of evidence and high probability estimates for existence of extraterrestrial civilizations
  • Formation and evolution of the Solar System
  • Global catastrophic risk, besides known as Risks to civilisation, humans, and planet Earth – Potentially harmful worldwide events
  • Groovy Filter – Whatever prevents interstellar civilisations from arising from non-living affair
  • History of Earth – Development of planet Earth from its formation to the present solar day
  • Lava planet
  • Medea hypothesis
  • Moving the World
  • Planetary engineering – Influencing a planet'due south global environments
  • Planetary habitability – Extent to which a planet is suitable for life as we know it
  • Rare Earth hypothesis – Hypothesis that complex extraterrestrial life is improbable and extremely rare
  • Infinite and survival – Idea that long-term presence of man presence in the universe requires a spacefaring civilization
  • Speculative evolution: Oftentimes portrays hypothetical animals that could one day inhabit Earth in the distant time to come, usually post-obit either an existential catastrophe and/or human extinction.
  • Stability of the Solar System – Long term dynamical interactions that disrupt the Solar System
  • Timeline of the far time to come – Scientific projections regarding the far future
  • Ultimate fate of the universe, also known every bit the cease of the universe – Theories about the finish of the universe

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Notes [edit]

  1. ^ See also: Life After People, about the disuse of structures (if humans disappeared).

Farther reading [edit]

  • Scotese, Christopher R., PALEOMAP Projection , retrieved 2009-08-28 .
  • Tonn, B. Due east. (March 2002), "Afar futures and the environment", Futures, 34 (2): 117–132, doi:x.1016/S0016-3287(01)00050-7.

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Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Earth

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